Competitive race in Pennsylvania - CNN.com
As polls closed in Pennsylvania, the race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was too close to call.
With just 3 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton was leading Obama 53-47.
Posted Apr 23, 2008
todd
Responses to this thread:
Jim Cowie:
cnn called it for clinton by 8% with 49% reporting. that will presumably widen as he rural votes come in.
smckenzie23:
It will be slightly under 10. Nothing matters at this point but the supers. No way she'll ever catch up in delegates, won states or popular vote. Supers will break for Obama in the next couple of weeks and her 1 or 2 losses on the 6th will force her to concede.
Jim Cowie:
the margin of victory was about 210K votes. 100K voters changed party affiliations in order to vote in this closed primary in the last weeks. So if you factor out the republicans who came over to vote for hillary, it's probably more like 5 or 6%. It's all spin ...
todd:
jim: do you have evidence that a significant number of republicans registered as democrats in PA? i know it happened in OH and in TX due to the Rush Limbaugh promotion of that strategy, but i haven't read about it in PA
Jim Cowie:
all we know is the number of people who changed party. but the "republicans for hillary" explanation seems plausible as an explanation. so too, to some extent, would "independents for obama." so we can't be sure without better numbers.
smckenzie23:
The state was always her state. Lots of old people and low information poor white voters. A month ago she was polling a 20-25% advantage.
