Electoral Projections Done Right: North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits
If you'll recall, the way that I produce these projections is to rely purely on demographic data from previous primaries. So the unstated assumption is this: if voters in North Carolina behave like demographically-aligned voters in other states, this is about what we should expect. On the other hand, if something has changed in the way that some groups of voters view the candidates -- our model may be inaccurate.
Posted May 06, 2008
Jim Cowie
Responses to this thread:
Jim Cowie:
He believes that Obama may be headed for a 17 point win, based on an underestimation of the African-American registered voter turnout. A lot of really good detail and statistical demographics backing up the prediction. Of course, it's politics, so who knows what will really happen 
Arkansan:
My fingers are crossed for him here and in Indiana. I found myself telling a pollster who telephoned last night that if the general election is between McCain & Clinton I might vote Libertarian. First time I've said that out loud.
todd:
Arkansan: the Libertarian Party *is* running Bob Barr. If you can't vote for him, you can't vote Libertarian. Why the Clinton hate?
Arkansan:
Todd: I have high hopes for Obama. Compare the following to Clinton's "gas tax holiday."May 06, 2008
Categories: Barack Obama
Meanwhile, in his spare time...
...Obama seems to have brought peace to the Niger Delta. No joke.
Reuters:
Rebels who have stepped up attacks on Nigeria's oil industry in the last month said on Sunday they were considering a ceasefire appeal by U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has launched five attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta since it resumed a campaign of violence in April, forcing Royal Dutch Shell to shut more than 164,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).
"The MEND command is seriously considering a temporary ceasefire appeal by Senator Barack Obama. Obama is someone we respect and hold in high esteem," the militant group said in an e-mailed statement.
gregg:
Todd, as for my Clinton hate... whatever neutrality I had about her is evaporating as she scrambles and distorts reality in her efforts to convince America that she is the "popular" candidate. It is depressing to watch such squabbling.
todd:
Squabbling is what makes america great! I really do think that people who complain about such things should be required to suggest some way that a dissimilar group of 300m people *should* decide things. I have no idea what else we could be doing, other than not doing this at all (dictatorship, oligopoly, radical local succession into homogeneous tiny groups, etc).
Jim Cowie:
Here's a great followup on this thread, noting how close he came, relative to the other polling. Score one for the methodology! http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php
